Global economic activity strengthened in the first quarter of 2026, despite disruptions to global supply chains caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz1. According to the latest available data, year-on-year GDP growth rate in the United States stood at 2.7% in the first quarter of 2026, after 2.0% in the previous quarter. In the Eurozone, GDP growth came in at 0.8%, versus 1.2% a quarter earlier. In emerging countries, economic activity remained buoyant in China, with output rising by 5.0% in the first quarter of 2026, following 4.5% growth a quarter earlier. In South Africa, growth accelerated from 0.8% in the previous quarter to 1.8%.

Inflation trended upward across most regions, reflecting the impact of the energy shock triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. In advanced economies, particularly the United States and the Eurozone, year-on-year inflation stood at 3.5% and 2.6%, respectively, in March 2026, compared with 2.9% and 2.0% three months earlier. In emerging economies, inflation stood at 1.0% in China and 3.1% in South Africa, compared with 0.8% and 3.6%, respectively, in December 2025. In the West African sub-region, trends were mixed, with inflation edging up in Nigeria (15.4% in March 2026, compared with 15.2% in December 2025), while disinflation continued in Ghana over the same period (3.2%, compared with 5.4%).

On the commodity markets, energy prices rose by 25.9%, quarter on quarter, in the first quarter of 2026, after declining by 6.1% in the previous quarter, driven in particular by higher oil prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Non-energy commodity prices also rose by 4.5%, mainly due to higher precious metal prices, particularly gold, amid heightened uncertainty. By contrast, prices of non-petroleum commodities exported by WAEMU countries fell by 1.3% in the first quarter of 2026, after declining by 0.9% one quarter earlier. The sharpest declines were recorded in cocoa and coffee prices, reflecting supply-side factors.

International monetary and financial conditions in the first quarter of 2026 were marked by an easing of short-term rates and pressure on long-term rates in advanced economies. On money markets, borrowing conditions eased in the United States, where the overnight interbank rate (Overnight Bank Funding Rate) stood at 3.68% in the first quarter of 2026, versus 3.90% in the previous quarter. Conditions remained broadly stable in the Eurozone, where the €STR averaged 1.93%, unchanged from one quarter to the next. On bond markets, yields on 10-year US government bonds rose by 10.1 basis points, reflecting higher inflation expectations fueled by rising oil prices. In the Eurozone, expansionary fiscal policy in Germany and concerns about public finances in France led to an overall increase in 10-year government bond yields. On the foreign exchange market, the euro strengthened by 0.2% against the other major currencies, after remaining virtually stable in the fourth quarter of 2025.